Simmering rivalry that threatens BBI  promise of peace

Such is the depth of politicisation of Kenya’s national psyche that even what could have been a routine appointment and reshuffling of Cabinet Secretaries, Permanent Secretaries and Chief Administrative Secretaries is now a flexing of muscles, a reminder of who is boss in the ongoing bizarre arm-wrestling contest between the President and Deputy President.

MEDIOCRE

Former Agriculture Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri deserved the sack because of his mediocre performance in a critical docket. He fumbled the management of the strategic maize reserves, leading to an increase in the price of Kenya’s staple – maize flour.

Then came the locusts whose arrival had been flagged in good time. The warning was ignored and now there is a crisis whose impact may well be devastation of food crops.

These are enough failures to warrant a sack. But it is also true that Mr Kiunjuri is an ardent supporter of Dr Ruto, whose ambition to succeed his boss has burnt brightly since 2013. But the once warm support for a possible Ruto presidency has waned considerably and with that has come a review of alignments. Mr Kiunjuri’s goose was cooked as long as he did not mute his support. The fact that his ministry was wobbling made the President’s work easy, almost pleasurable.

EMBARRASSING

The eroding of the DP’s authority by removal of his supporters from key roles, embarrassing let-downs like being barred from the residence designated for the Deputy President, being ignored by central government representatives in the regions and sidelining him from the direct supervision of government operations and services have now cast him as the outsider in government.

Frame that against the exuberance attending functions of “opposition” leader Raila Odinga and you have a political picture that is decidedly Kenyan. Nowhere is this more dramatically illustrated than in the energy and resources being expended to whip up mass euphoria for the Building Bridges Initiative. Tellingly, the mass BBI meetings described as consultations started (in Kisii) before the team that should be managing that process was gazetted.

CAMPAIGNING

While we wait to see if the official BBI team will endorse the mass meetings by adopting the resolutions passed there, it is pretty safe to conclude that Mr Odinga is now in and Dr Ruto is out of the Uhuru government in all but the ceremony. A related possibility that Mr Odinga has every intention to be on the ballot (despite his protestations) is now a probability.

It is also quite obvious that the BBI is the bridge by which Mr Odinga intends to cross over into his famous Canaan. Which means a referendum or a change of laws in Parliament, paths that do not give easy passage to Mr Odinga’s ambitions.

The Deputy President’s aggressive and “generous” campaigning over the past seven years give him a very strong say in how debates are concluded in both Houses of Parliament. He also has an impressive grip on a large portion of the public to whom he can appeal directly.

ZEALOTS

So, rather than see the situation as a clear-cut battle between camps of Kenyatta/Odinga on one side and those of Deputy President on the other, we have the country again divided between the tribes represented by these gentlemen, with a very real possibility that the one outcome the BBI was intended to prevent – violence triggered by an electoral win or loss – will come to pass.

The stakes are extremely high for both Mr Odinga and for the DP. For one it represents the final roll of the dice, for the other the zenith he has worked for with unmatched zeal and expended humongous amounts of resources. Both command zealots willing to sacrifice all for their own to get a chance to wield the knife that shares the national cake. We pretend if we imagine that any loss will be met with a congratulatory smile.

Tom Mshindi is the former editor-in-chief of the Nation Media Group and is now consulting. [email protected], @tmshindi