Time ripe for honest talks on Kenya’s dispute with Somalia

President Uhuru Kenyatta with Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed at State House, Nairobi. PHOTO| FILE | PSCU

What you need to know:

  • Kenya’s approach in the case has so far been tactical adjournments of the case to buy time.
  • In response, Somalia has inflexibly pegged its fate on whatever decision ICJ makes.
  • Kenya needs to reasonably and firmly negotiate and avoid an eternal maritime dispute for the next generations.

Kenya has been granted an extension of eight more months before the maritime case starts with Somalia at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

The June 8-12, 2020 dates were granted after the second and final postponement at Kenya’s request.

Somalia is disappointed with the decision that is certainly a relief for the Kenyan diplomacy and its legal team to put their act together, but ultimately not a lasting solution.

Kenya’s approach in the case has so far been tactical adjournments of the case to buy time, offensive diplomatic pressure, coupled with talk of a negotiated settlement.

ICJ

In response, Somalia has inflexibly pegged its fate on whatever decision ICJ makes, possibly to escape the aggressive posture of Kenyan diplomacy.

This has occasioned a loss of trust and poisoned political environment between the two countries for any mediations.

Kenyan’s negotiation with the Federal Republic of Somalia over the maritime dispute appears to be a double-edged sword.

On one hand, the head of state has met with his Somali counterpart several times, latest of which was at the last seating of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York.

At each summit, they have reached some understandings and publicly stated so in their statements, which seem not to be followed through by the concerned agencies of the respective governments.

DIPLOMATIC PRESSURES

On the other hand, Kenya has resorted to diplomatic pressures on Mogadishu and multitudes of other arm-twisting, including stringent air flight restrictions and visa sanctions on Somali diplomats, which do not help build confidence between Nairobi and Mogadishu to allow genuine negotiations.

Recently, a Kenyan delegation, led by the National Assembly Leader of the Majority Aden Duale went to Jubbaland State of Somalia to attend the “inauguration” of its president Ahmed Madobe.

Jubbaland is a contested outfit whose election Somali authorities condemned as illegal, null and void.

In his speech, Mr Duale, while referring to the relations between the two countries, gave a rather unfriendly remarks aimed at the top Somali leadership in Mogadishu.

RED CARPET RECEPTIONS

That was is in addition to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs giving red carpet receptions to other Somali regional state leaders, to the chagrin of Mogadishu.

The pattern of behaviour seems to have been borrowed from Gulf countries, which seem to prefer Somalia remaining a failed state and not develop its ports and hydrocarbon resources.

This forceful diplomacy has failed to bring the Somali leadership to the negotiations table on the maritime issue or to other desired results whatever.

The above actions of the Kenya government give the impression that it was either not interested in negotiation, or waiting for an opportune time to do so, maybe after a regime change in Mogadishu.

STOP NEGATIVE DIPLOMACY

Kenya should be negotiating in good faith-bona fide. All it needs to do is stop negative diplomacy and start negotiations devoid of arrogance and egos at the ministerial level.

Kenya may consider an overhaul of its negotiation capacity, which looks to have outsourced its policy towards the Horn of Africa and indeed Somalia to media talk shows, brief case experts and “consultant analysts”.

It is strange that some people were calling for a military option to resolve the dispute.

As a people, nations and neighbours, Kenyans and Somalis interact on daily basis.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs may have misled the country on the maritime issue and owes Kenyans an explanation as to what is actually happening on the ground, instead of toying with the idea of a military action.

ETHIOPIA

In comparison, Ethiopia, the new force to reckon with in the Horn of Africa, has stopped engaging the Somali regional leaders in pursuit of its interests and instead deals directly with the central government in Mogadishu.

Ethiopia is said to have acquired the development and management of four Somali ports through negotiation.

It has further created the Horn of Africa economic and peace groupings where it calls the shorts. Let Kenya learn from the good neighbour Ethiopia!

Both Kenya and Somalia need to approach these negotiations from a strategic angle rather than being fixated with the disputed maritime area.

What they need is consensus access and legitimacy to the larger outer continental shelf seas and not to be obsessed with a small sea triangle dispute.

Indeed, there are scenario model maps of the disputed maritime areas and the outer seas sharing that could bring win-win solutions for both countries.

INDIAN OCEAN

In any case, there is the whole of the Indian Ocean to share in the next extension of the continental shelf beyond the existing 380 nautical miles.

Kenya will be ill-advised to seek further deferments or boycott of the upcoming ICJ hearings.

To do so will be a grave miscalculation that will give Somalia a field day at the court.

This will dent Kenya’s image towards its quest for a UN Security Council seat and as a host to UN agencies in Nairobi.

Strong-arm diplomacy will not help Kenya win the maritime legal case.

Kenya needs to reasonably and firmly negotiate and avoid an eternal maritime dispute for the next generations.

Mr Ibrahim Khamis is a retired diplomat ([email protected])