UK caught between a rock and a hard place over Brexit deal

British Prime Minister Theresa May. In her two years in office, May has lost 20 Cabinet secretaries, 10 due to Brexit. PHOTO | DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS | AFP

What you need to know:

  • May used the most honest words a politician can to articulate the reality.
  • It is not with ease that the so-called bad deal has come to fruition.
  • Should there be no treaty agreed by the deadline, the UK will rely on the backstop.

Have you ever made a bad deal? Did you haggle and drag down your offer and drive a bargain only to realise, in hindsight, that a no deal would have been better than the bad deal you were eventually stuck with? That is the scenario confronting the UK over Brexit.

Last week, the UK Cabinet had the daunting task of analysing a 585-page Brexit draft deal.

After five hours of deliberation, they came to the conclusion that this was a bad deal.

Despite this general agreement, Prime Minister Theresa May still believes that the deal “brings back control of our money, laws and borders, ends free movement”.

May used the most honest words a politician can to articulate the reality.

BEST INTERESTS

“I firmly believe, with my head and my heart, that this is a decision that is in the best interests of the entire United Kingdom.”

Well, her firm belief was not compelling enough and it saw her Cabinet descend into further resignations, including that of Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab.

In her two years in office, May has lost 20 Cabinet secretaries, 10 due to Brexit.

As though the bad deal was the ultimate blow, there is now a call for a vote of no-confidence by the Conservative Party to oust the Prime Minister if 48 MPs write to the Chairman of the committee.

Is this bad deal worth it? With the time running out and the UK set to leave the EU on March 29, next year, the Prime Minister seems unpopular and in isolation, yet the only one with the foresight to keep the eye on the clock. Despite being a “remainer”, she has not abandoned the unprecedented and daunting task of making a deal for the UK.

BAD DEAL

It is not with ease that the so-called bad deal has come to fruition, considering the EU itself has been an aggressive negotiator with the UK.

Of particular note is that the orchestrators of Brexit itself jumped ship the day after the referendum, when the going got tough and are now audaciously heckling “bad deal!”

Yet, even with the resignations and the bad deal branding, no one has offered an alternative or better deal. Of peculiar interest is that the next Prime Minister would not be better placed to renegotiate a better deal if the EU was even open to renegotiating. It is no wonder May has taken the hard stance that the country is left with three options. Her deal, no deal or not leave at all.

What would a country rather risk, a bad deal on the table or no deal at all?

In the bad deal, in the transition period until December 2021, the UK will remain silent subject and compliant to the EU rules, contributor to the EU budget and accept free movement of people.

These three matters go against the key objective of Brexit, which was to regain the country’s sovereignty.

But this is only until the EU and UK agree to a full treaty on how they will conduct their new partnership.

BACKSTOP

Should there be no treaty agreed by the deadline, the UK will rely on the backstop.

With the backstop, Northern Ireland will remain in the customs union and single market to maintain a frictionless Irish border.

Here lies the crux of the deal.

The Northern Ireland part of the UK will hold what appears to be a more favourable position towards the rest of the UK.

How do you then uphold a divided sovereignty?

A no deal would mean that the UK leaves the EU in turmoil and with great uncertainty about the future.

There will be no withdrawal agreement that is now taking the form of a bad deal and no transition arrangement.

The UK will simply get up and leave the EU on the appointed date and time.

BACK TO EU

If there was a later realisation that an error had been made, it is likely the UK will cower back to the EU to renegotiate, and chances are it will only be met with the bad deal that was rejected.

It cannot be denied that the EU would hold the upper hand in the negotiations and could offer a less favourable deal on a “take it or leave it” basis.

Despite indications that UK MPS will reject the bad deal that is now before them, what other choice do they have?

Those who have quit the Cabinet seemed best placed to negotiate a good deal, yet they failed to do so despite all their outward confidence.

Who then can secure a better deal than May in what appears to be surrender, rather than leave with empty hands?

There comes a time when there is only one party to negotiate with and a bad deal is better than no deal where no other offers and benefits outweigh the risks.

And so, if you choose to leave and you are called to the table, you better have an offer that the other party cannot possibly refuse.

Ms Burini works with an international airline on dispute resolution. [email protected]