Uhuru caught between saving the economy and succession politics

President Uhuru Kenyatta leads the nation in celebrating Labour Day on May 1, 2020, at State House in Nairobi. PHOTO | PSCU

What you need to know:

  • BBI emerges as Mr Odinga’s ride to the presidency at the expense of Deputy President William Ruto and with the support of the President.
  • The real test for the President will be stemming Covid-19 spread, mortality and his economic recovery plan.

President Uhuru Kenyatta appears to be setting up a tumultuous journey into retirement. Witness the following.

One, those who claim to be privy to upcoming changes, thanks to their proximity to insiders, say that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will be officially in government before Christmas.

That means Mr Odinga’s recent spectacular and accelerated rise to superstar status late in his career and age continues apace.

Already more powerful than he has ever been, albeit unelected, this anticipates a coalition government.

Two, the road map to the Kenyatta II succession is looking like this: change in and of government in 2020; referendum in 2021 and general election in 2022.

That’s a fast-paced, exhausting and high-consequence diary and political agenda. This promises to keep Kenya in election mode between now and poll date 2022.

It means one event is calculated to lead into the next, which makes it a process and which, in turn, points to a plan to closely manage the Kenyatta II succession.

BIG FOUR AGENDA

While it may be argued this is to ensure it is orderly, peaceful and in the national interest, the view that this is meant to plant a certain individual in State House cannot be dismissed offhand, nor Mr Kenyatta’s personal involvement ruled out.

And this is what should remind Kenyans of the provocative prophecy that who becomes the next president of the republic will be decided in a boardroom, and not a ballot booth, by organised labour boss Francis Atwoli.

Three, there is the President’s legacy, which he personally predicated on the realisation of affordable housing, universal healthcare, development of manufacturing and infrastructure. Simply put, as the President did in November 2017, the Big Four.

Increasingly, the Big Four agenda is swamped by the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). Its bureaucratic-cum-technocratic-cum-intellectual arm remains largely out of view, but the out-and-out political arm is publicly exemplified in euphoric weekend rallies.

BBI is the issue from the private, exclusive and secret contract on Kenya between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, his previously implacable foe turned confidant, of March 2018.

Increasingly, BBI emerges as Mr Odinga’s ride to the presidency at the expense of Deputy President William Ruto and with the support of the President.

RUTO FACTOR

Either the President sticks to his Big Four or he hangs on Mr Odinga’s BBI coat-tails. Alternatively, he could pick and choose from both.

It is too late for the last option. As for the first, he cannot abandon his philosophy for that of a man only recently converted to his side and is himself desperate for the presidency.

Four, that brings us to Kenya’s most rotten relationship ever between the President and his Number Two.

President Kenyatta has not only made Dr Ruto a DINO – Deputy In Name Only – he humiliates him in person and in public and keeps a studious silence as his allies attack the DP.

But the President will remember that politics is about numbers. He courted Dr Ruto because of the vote-rich Rift Valley and the Kalenjin numbers in particular.

Mr Kenyatta will also remember that the Kalenjin remember ‘Kumi yangu, kumi ya Ruto’.

The President will remember that the epicentre of the 2007 violence was Dr Ruto’s Uasin Gishu County.

The violence erupted in support of a certain Odinga who now, supported by the President, has turned vitriolic critic of Dr Ruto, depicting him as chief priest in Kenya’s temple of graft.

VIRUS CRISIS

The continuing rise of Mr Odinga, whom many had signed him off as a has-been after the 2017 General Election, contrasts sharply with the descent into infamy of Dr Ruto at the hands of President Kenyatta.

A coalition government will further strengthen the Kenyatta and Raila axis, which is what it is all about.

Last, Covid-19 is pushing the economy into the danger zone. The handling of it is helping eclipse Dr Ruto further.

But the real test for the President will be stemming its spread, mortality and his economic recovery plan.

The pandemic affects all of the above issues and more, especially because it gobbles money, closes businesses, puts people out of work, puts the government at the centre and control of people’s lives and sends the economy plummeting.

So President Kenyatta must either concentrate his remaining time in office to using the recovery from Covid-19 to mould a legacy grounded in the economy and Big Four, or keeping the pot of politics boiling Odinga-style till poll date 2022 and beyond.

The latter is anti-economic growth.