‘War on graft’ a tool by Uhuru, Raila to manage presidential succession

First, what is the state of national politics? Kenya is slipping back into poisoned and polarised politics, thanks to the Kenyatta II succession and the roles in it of the handshake and corruption.

It is like pre and post-2017 General Election all over again. Only this time around Mr Raila Odinga has planted himself between President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto in the politics and succession stakes.

The President avers with increasing vehemence that he is waging war on corruption. Mr Odinga pointedly accuses the DP of graft and declares his full support for the war on corruption.

Dr Ruto angrily brands Mr Odinga a witch doctor and devil worshipper. Is there war on corruption?

POLITICISE

War on crime is waged by police, crime-detecting and crime-preventing agencies and prosecutors. Their arsenal is evidence. Their battlefields are the courts.

But what Kenyans are witnessing here is a situation in which corruption has become a dramatic dynamic in the management of the presidential succession by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.

This war is fought by politicians against politicians; politicians against the Judiciary, and by prosecutors in the media. War on graft is a rallying cry because people are best united against a common enemy.

But graft is faceless, and so the DP has been made its face and therefore presented as a public enemy. Graft-linked public humiliation is the political arsenal in the war of attrition against Dr Ruto.

BETRAYAL

Second, did Mr Odinga betray his three National Super Alliance (Nasa) co-principals - Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula? Yes. Absolutely.

That President Kenyatta has similarly betrayed Dr Ruto by reneging on a 2012 agreement to back him for the presidency in 2022 is a foregone conclusion.

But that betrayal is the pot in which Kenya's politics is cooked and is appreciated by the Nasa troika and Dr Ruto. It is why each took it on chin and moved on. Here’s the how.

One, Messrs Musyoka, Wetang'ula and Mudavadi were not privy to the deal between the President and their co-principal.

So secretive was it that they did not get even a whiff of it. Nasa leading lights heard of the deal at the same time as did their constituents, on TV.

BUILDING BRIDGES

Two, the four of them fought President Kenyatta in the election the previous year and together launched a post-election campaign to delegitimise Mr Kenyatta's government and for electoral justice. But Mr Odinga cut a deal only for himself.

Three, as Nasa they began a campaign of mass action while instigating for a national conference.

But alone and unbeknownst to Messrs Musyoka, Wetang'ula and Mudavadi, Mr Odinga was negotiating with Mr Kenyatta.

Four, the deal sidestepped the demand for a national dialogue, which the Nasa quartet campaigned for and which Mr Odinga had been actively canvassing since 2015.

Instead, the handshake ushered in a task force named Building Bridges Initiative that reports largely to Mr Odinga.

EXCLUSIVIST

Five, Mr Musyoka, Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Mudavadi were not only excluded from the deal, but Mr Odinga also flatly said they were not welcome.

Why? Because, he said, they had expressed interest in running for the presidency in 2022.

But the deal was sold as a unifier of Kenyans. You cannot unite people while isolating their leaders. The handshake is exclusivist yet claims to unite Kenyans and form an inclusive executive.

Six, the handshake shunted Mr Musyoka, Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Mudavadi from the centre to the periphery of the political arena.

But it catapulted Mr Odinga to the inner sanctums of power and to a powerful continental job. As an afterthought, Mr Musyoka was brought in from the cold but he is no insider.

HOSTILITY

Seven, thanks to the handshake, Parliament is now a one-party Legislature. Opposition legislators are programmed to vote with Jubilee Party, which already commanded a crushing majority.

The handshake betrayed Kenyans who voted for Jubilee to govern and for Nasa to keep the government honest.

Last, what does handshake politics portend? There is turbulence ahead. It will ensue from the pressure from the crater created by the handshake. The crater divides Kenya’s politics into hostile Ruto and Raila axes.

The first test as to whether President Kenyatta can keep the handshake monster caged (manage his succession) will be the change-the-constitution referendum. It will be a dress rehearsal for 2022.

In the meantime, a handshake-inspired, handshake-boosting shake-up of government is taking shape.

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