What Ruto must now do to trump those scheming for Uhuru to succeed himself

If the deal between President Kenyatta and his foe-turned-ally Raila Odinga drives derailment of Deputy President William Ruto’s accession of the presidency, then, Kenya may witness a popular fight for the right changes to the constitution and for the highest office in the land.

But that’s only if Mr Ruto digs in his heels and deep, then, takes this, the fight of his life, by the scruff of the neck and targets Mr Odinga, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, organised labour boss Francis Atwoli and his own Jubilee Party Vice-Chairman David Murathe.

He is on his own. And because he must be his own man, he must stick up for himself. There will be no presidential coattails to hang on; no family name recognition to ride on; no Imbuga-esque tall relatives to call upon; and, political debts owing have since been discounted.

Mr Ruto must fight until he is the last man standing. He has, and by grit and guts, earned his stripes as one of the big beasts of Kenya’s political jungle. Indeed, that is why there is now a call for a change to the constitution to expand the Executive and introduce a prime minister’s office.

INCLUSIVITY

The effect of it, camouflaged as ushering in inclusivity to the Executive, will be to turn the DP’s office into a backwater or scrap it altogether. At best, the call for change heralds the war to prevent Mr Ruto from succeeding President Kenyatta in 2022.

The worst of it is represented by Mr Atwoli and Mr Murathe who want President Kenyatta to either succeed himself a la Xi Jinping and Paul Kagame, or, somehow, remain part of the Executive when his term ends in 2022.

The lesson from the history of Kenya’s politicians who have been a heartbeat away from the presidency is that Mr Ruto must equip himself adequately to withstand intense and sustained pressure that will henceforward hit him from all sides.

No, the constitution should neither be changed to extend Mr Kenyatta’s tenure nor to scuttle Mr Ruto’s ambition. Should Mr Ruto, therefore, oppose calls for changes to the constitution? There is merit in his opposition to the call because he is obviously the target of the envisaged change.

REFERENDUM

He is also right that a referendum will take Kenya back to campaign mode thereby prolonging last year’s unusually long election cycle. If a presidential poll so divided Kenyans it took a deal between embittered protagonists to end nationwide uncertainty, a constitution-based referendum may actually revive the differences, divisions and attendant instability. However, the basic law requires fine-tuning.

Therefore the DP must not oppose its amendment, but anchor the drive for people-centred changes while exposing alterations sought by Messrs Odinga, Moi, Atwoli and Murathe as self-aggrandising, and, therefore, anti-people.

Here Mr Ruto’s Plan B must be that if the plebiscite happens and Kenyans back a PM as head of government, then, he must be premier in 2022.  It was he who memorably defined the 2013 General Election as a contest between the decaying analogue generation of William Ntimama and its flourishing digital counterpart of Jubilee Alliance.

DIFFICULTY

He should have no difficulty typifying a fight between him and Mr Odinga or Mr Moi or both, and especially if backed by the President, as a conspiracy by the Big Three political families, or the dynastic axis, to stop the outsider son of a peasant from becoming head of state.

That’s potent even from a DP who carries a shipload of political, personality and ethical baggage. A people-oriented, DP-anchored campaign for devolution-entrenching change of the basic law should compete favourably against a dynastic axis-led expand-the-government charge.

In the 2007 General Election, Mr Odinga alleged there was a plot for Mr Kenyatta to succeed President Kibaki and for the younger Moi to later succeed Mr Kenyatta. State House called the allegation nonsense, but acknowledged it was, as intended, hurting the Kibaki campaign.

MAGICIAN

Now that the boot is on the other foot, the DP should relish portraying Mr Odinga as a political magician now keen to don the Number 9 shirt for Dynastic Axis against him. Finally, the DP will be aware of the ethnic realignments that the deal between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga has unleashed and arm himself with sweeteners and frighteners courtesy of incumbency for specific regions to keep them in his orbit.

So, do handshakes end political rivalry or enmity? The March 9 handshake opened up a new front in political contestation.

Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]