Why dispute on election team must be resolved soon

Discussions between the government and opposition politicians over the make-up of the electoral commission stalled this week after Cord rejected an 11-member team selected by President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Yet, even if this team (or a new one) is accepted by both parties, the real sticking point remains the question of whether or not the poll commissioners will be replaced ahead of the 2017 elections.

However, as Nic Cheeseman recently argued, the President’s record suggests that such a change will be regarded as a significant compromise which he is likely to resist.

But as long as the stalemate goes on, the political situation is in danger of deteriorating further. It is, therefore, critical that a solution to this crisis be reached as quickly as possible.

First, while the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission issue remains unresolved, periodic (and perhaps even increasingly regular) opposition protests look set to continue.

In turn, recent comments by the Interior Cabinet Secretary that “the Government prohibits all unlawful demonstrations”, suggest that the police will continue with a heavy-handed response that has so far seen protestors brutally beaten up and several shot and killed.

As a result, the protests would not only cause further damage to local businesses and investment, but also likely result in further injuries and fatalities.

Moreover, such a heavy-handed response will not address the underlying grievances. Instead, it is likely to make people angrier, and, as history has shown, may encourage people to become involved in more organised acts of violence.

Ongoing protest will also lead to a further deepening of an already chasmal political divide. Opposition supporters become increasingly frustrated with the government’s intransigence and increasingly assured of the electoral team’s lack of credibility; and government supporters become increasingly frustrated with the disorder and chaos wrought by regular protests and increasingly convinced that Raila Odinga and Cord are pro-violence, non-business-friendly, and unfit to rule.

The fact that this divide correlates closely with ethnic identities renders it a particularly dangerous schism.

Beyond the protests themselves, each day of ongoing stalemate, brings us closer to next year’s elections. This is important, since, even if a decision is made to replace the current commissioners, this will only be the beginning of a long-winded process if public confidence in the team is to recover. This process would include the selection and appointment of new commissioners, but also further discussion on, and preparation for, electoral technology, civic education and so forth.

Decisions also still need to be made about whether to introduce a constitutional gender quota through next year’s elections, and how to operationalise a constitutional integrity clause.

At another level, as politicians, the media, political commentators, and prominent civil society organisations remain focused on this crisis, little progress is made in other important areas.

For example, while everyone obsesses with the polls team, what has happened with the fight against corruption? Key infrastructure projects, and the exploitation of oil reserves? Efforts to address historical injustices? What progress has been made in planning for the Chief Justice, who will stand down?

What of Parliament’s commitment to discuss the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission report? What has happened to perceptions of economic marginalisation amongst various groups? What of the war in Somalia, and the Kenyan soldiers killed and maimed?

While the stalemate constitutes a political crisis in and of itself, a failure to address it in a timely manner also places pressure on an array of socio-economic and political factors.

These include inter-ethnic relations and popular confidence in 2017 elections. But it also includes investment, the full implementation of the constitution and associated reforms, and demands for redress for past injustice. In short, it is important to solve this stalemate so that political attention can move on to other pressing matters.

Gabrielle Lynch is an associate professor of comparative politics at the University of Warwick in the UK; [email protected]; @GabrielleLynch6.