The politics of estimating crowds in Meru-style BBI political rallies

Gatundu MP Moses Kuria walks out of the Building Bridges Initiative rally at Kinoru Stadium in Meru town after he was denied a chance to speak, February 29, 2020. PHOTO | JOSEPH KANYI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Estimating crowds accurately is a science, not an art, requiring modern techniques and skills such as use of satellites, aerial photography or mapping applications like Google Earth and pixel-counting.
  • Because of the complexity of accurately estimating crowd sizes, some newsrooms do not publish crowd-size estimates.

It was billed as the biggest Building Bridges Initiative meeting to be held,” the Sunday Nation (March 1, 2020) reported in the opening paragraph. “And it came to pass when thousands of delegates and politicians packed the 30,000-seater Kinoru Stadium in Meru County for the first Mt Kenya BBI rally.” Written by Kennedy Kimanthi and Gitonga Marete, it was headlined “Tense, funny moments at well-attended Meru forum”.

The claim that the meeting was the biggest ever might well be true. However, counting crowd sizes is difficult, controversial and hotly debated. Elsewhere in the world, people still argue, for example, about the number of people who attended President Trump’s inauguration ceremony three years ago, the crowd estimates for Hong Kong’ 2019-2020 pro-democracy protests and the 1995 civil rights gathering in Washington, DC, billed the Million Man March.

ESTIMATING CROWDS

Estimating crowds accurately is a science, not an art, requiring modern techniques and skills such as use of satellites, aerial photography or mapping applications like Google Earth and pixel-counting, and drone-enabled cameras flying over the crowds. These are beyond the means and skills of most people.

It is even more difficult when it is a moving crowd. Take, for example, the crowd that accompanied Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria and Senate Majority Leader Kipchumba Murkomen as they stormed out of the meeting. How many people were in the crowd?

If you ignore Homa Bay Woman Representative Gladys Wanga’s partisan claim that these were “a rented crowd of 300 people”, we have no reliable estimate. All we know is that the crowd size was significant enough to upset some people.

Apart from the science, there’s also the politics of estimating crowd sizes. Organisers of the Meru BBI meeting and their sympathisers would, no doubt, exaggerate the number of people who attended the rally and downplay the number of those who stormed out. On the other hand, their political opponents would downplay the number of those who attended and exaggerate the number of those who walked out.

HAVE A STAKE

Journalists, too, have a stake in crowd estimates. Numbers affect the prominence of their stories. So, everybody, including readers, has a stake in counting crowd sizes. If the counting is exaggerated or understated, the reader loses confidence in the report while the journalist, or his media organisation, loses credibility and can be accused of political bias.

Because of the complexity of accurately estimating crowd sizes, some newsrooms do not publish crowd-size estimates.

The NMG editorial policy does not prohibit publishing crowd estimates but what the policy says with regard to election coverage is pertinent. It states that the election period “gives us a crucial opportunity to reaffirm our credibility with the public.” It goes on to stress the importance of “strict adherence to accuracy and fairness” and careful selection of pictures and captions to ensure they do not unwittingly send the wrong message or distort the truth.

“In this regard, no editing shall be done to either diminish the size of crowds or to enhance them,” the policy states.

A reader, Juliet Wairimu, was quick to question Messrs Kimanthi and Marete on how they counted the crowd.

“Your assertion that the meeting was the biggest ever seems not to be factual,” said Ms Wairimu. “Clips circulating shows an empty stadium behind the press platform. Could it be, by any chance, you forgot to look behind you to notice the stadium was empty?”

CROWD

I asked Mr Kimanthi and Mr Marete whether the statement that the BBI rally was the biggest ever was their own assessment or of some other authority. Mr Kimanthi, who is the Nation Regional Editor in Nyeri, explained: “It was our own assertion, given the political activities preceding the Saturday rally.”

I also asked if every seat in the stadium was taken. “Yes, every seat had been taken,” he said. Further, I asked if it was necessary to mention the size of the crowd. “We mentioned the number in the colour story,” he said by way of explanation.

Colour story? In journalism, a colour story focuses on impressions or descriptions of scenes to help the reader to better visualise an event. It is published besides a longer story that gives the hard facts.

This was the case with the story that Mr Kimanthi describes as a colour story. It was published along the main story, “Mt Kenya BBI rally fails to bridge pro-handshake, Ruto teams’ gap.”

Still, the question asked by Ms Wairimu remains valid: Is it accurate to say the Meru BBI meeting was the largest ever?

Send your complaints to [email protected]. Call or text 0721 989 264