Will Kalonzo entry swing the vote for Raila in race for State House?

From a fringe candidate in the 1997 presidential election who emerged fourth after amassing a largely ethnic vote, he invented himself as a statesman, shedding his earlier militant brand to win euphoric national support only 10 years later.

But today, Prime Minister Raila Odinga is left clutching at straws after he fell out with key figures of his 2007 campaign, raising questions about whether his uncanny ability to rebound will again come to his rescue as he fights for his political survival.

Attempts to woo his former ally-turned-bitter-foe, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, have failed. Mr Ruto has instead teamed up with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta in an alliance partly united by the cases the two face before the International Criminal Court.

Post-election violence

Mr Ruto fell out with the PM shortly after the formation of the grand coalition government in 2008 over the manner post-election violence suspects would be tried and the conservation of Mau Forest, which Mr Odinga was spearheading.

Mr Ruto’s departure from ODM along with several Rift Valley and Northern Kenya legislators made a dent in the country’s most popular party and reduced its parliamentary strength in Parliament by about 40 MPs.

Mr Ruto then joined forces with Mr Kenyatta, and they waged a war of words against the PM, accusing him of engineering their prosecution at the ICC, an accusation he seems not to have successfully shaken off.

Mr Odinga lost the support of quite a number of Kalenjin Rift Valley legislators with Mr Ruto’s exit, but Cabinet ministers Franklin Bett, Margaret Kamar, Musa Sirma, Sally Kosgei; assistant ministers Magerer Lang’at and Julius Murgor, as well as backbencher Wilson Litole have gone against the tide to stand by him.

And then there is Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi who left ODM in March to chart his own political path after months of grumbling about what he termed dictatorship in the party.

Mr Odinga enjoyed widespread support in Mr Mudavadi’s western region, but recent opinion polls show he has been overtaken by the deputy premier.

Some analysts now argue that save for a few pockets of support in the country, the son of the country’s founding vice-president is back to where he was in 1997.

But Mr Odinga has put on a brave face in the wake of these developments, insisting that his party is still popular nationwide — a claim backed by opinion polls — and promising to defeat his rivals using his reform credentials.

It remains to be seen if his impending deal with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka will plug the political holes and give Mr Odinga the boost he needs to win the presidency.

Complicate matters

However, a Raila-Kalonzo ticket could complicate matters for Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey who has been angling to be the PM’s running mate.

But according to Moi University’s Prof Peter Simatei, the PM’s loyalists in the Rift Valley are not necessarily still in his corner because they expect him to make one of them running mate.

“Instead, the ticket might end up being an attractive alternative to those in the Rift Valley disgruntled by the move by Ruto to support Uhuru for president,” he said.

Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology noted that Mr Musyoka stands to benefit from joining forces with Mr Odinga, adding that the pair would be a formidable force that could counter the “ICC ticket” of the DPM and Mr Ruto.

“Whereas one is combative, the other is a diplomat; whereas one is the risk taker, the other is cautious; whereas one would represent the western part of the country, the other would bring the east on board.”

Youth and Sports minister Ababu Namwamba said a Raila-Kalonzo ticket was the best formula to heal the nation, secure critical international confidence and guarantee the stability required to implement the Constitution.

But in a country where ethnic arithmetic counts, some argue that the PM and VP’s joint onslaught would be no match for the combined forces of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto who come from the country’s most and third-most populous communities respectively.

However, a day in politics is very long, and the fate of the 67-year-old politician — described by his biographer Dr Babafemi Badejo as an enigma in Kenya’s politics — is far from sealed.