Is the opposition terminally ill?
What you need to know:
- Democracy without opposition is a contradiction. A democratic president must have someone who says “I don’t like your ways, I don’t like how you do it, I don’t like you”.
- As we don't like the word ‘No,’ we tend to always end up compromising. In politics, this takes the shape of coalitions.
- Coalition government is a political marriage of convenience, where your in-laws become your blood relatives
It isn't true things used to be better in the good old days. Rather, we never realised how bad they were then.
When terminally ill patients get closer to their last breath they grow agitated. Death is the most dramatic moment in human life, after birth. In the last two weeks, the opposition has been giving signs of being terminally ill.
Democracy without opposition is a contradiction. A democratic president must have someone who says “I don’t like your ways, I don’t like how you do it, I don’t like you”. This is part of democracy.
But when this “I don’t like you” is taken to the streets there are two possibilities: one of the two players in the game, government or opposition, is dying or is already dead.
Could the opposition be dying? Is it in ICU? Is the saba saba rally one of its last kicks? The operating theatre is Nairobi, where big operations are carried out. The doctors are the voters.
The patient, called Opposition, is ill. The name Opposition does not come from Opondo, but it is the name the thinkers of democracy gave it. There are winners, called government, and losers, called opposition.
The drafters of the Constitution had this in mind. Perhaps they didn't foresee how difficult it would be for most of us in Kenya to learn to say 'No' and to learn to hear 'No' for an answer.
We don't like the word ‘No'. We often hear things like: “Are you coming to my party?” “Well, maybe”. Or “I'll try.” Somehow this word 'No' sickens us, it sounds bad and discourteous.
As we don't like the word ‘No,’ we tend to always end up compromising. In politics, this takes the shape of coalitions.
In 2008 we had a deep crisis, and we ended up having a coalition government for 5 years. But coalitions aren't the ordinary government structure in Kenya, or at least not since 2013.
Coalition is a political marriage of convenience, where your in-laws become your blood relatives. You mother-in-law becomes your biological mother and your daughter-in-law your own daughter.
SMALL INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY
Coalitions are essential in three types of democracies: In small party democracies, like Germany, where coalition government is the norm, as it is rare for any of the parties to win an unqualified majority in a national election.
Second, in old and tired democracies, like Italy or Greece, where parties have lost their original ideological weight and beauty and all look the same, just like very old men, past 100.
There is no big difference between them, and if they had an ideology they most probably forgot what it was all about.
Third, dysfunctional or crisis-plagued democracies, like Kenya in 2008, or Zimbabwe soon after, or Ukraine in 2014 or the United Kingdom from 1931 to 1940, where a coalition government known as the National Government was appointed to resolve a deep crisis.
In Kenya we have a very small institutional memory. A five-year coalition has made us believe that we should have every single politician in power. It wasn't like that before 2008, and it shouldn't be like that after 2013. The Constitution’s drafters made it clear; they said “whoever loses is out”.
Under the new Constitution, coalition would only arise in two situations: First, by free and magnanimous decision of the winner. This has happened in some counties, where winners have brought on board their defeated rivals. The second situation occurs when the opposition holds the majority in parliament.
In the latter case, there is no way a president can govern this country without a parliamentary majority, unless he brings the opposition on board and forms a coalition.
The presidency in Kenya is almost absolutely powerless with a reluctant parliament. It is like being forcefully married to a reluctant spouse, who is also a boxer. So what is the way out?
The opposition needs to learn to become ‘constructive opposition’, not destructive.
SUCCEED IN THE COUNTIES
The opposition needs three things: ideology, vision and agenda. A real ideology that gets us out of the ethnic trap; a vision to have some goals to strive for; and a clear agenda that goes beyond ‘power’ and keeps our hope for better days alive.
This sounds theoretical, but there is nothing more practical than a good theory: election is a matter of numbers, and unless there is something else than just ethnic appeal the numbers will remain largely unchanged, and no support will be gained outside foreseen quarters.
Both opposition and government need to tap into local government structures and get their agenda realised through them. This is why the biggest chances for CORD to become successful are found in Nairobi, Kisumu, Machakos, Mombasa and Kakamega.
If these counties become successful examples of devolved development and focused progress then CORD will have sent out to the whole country a message that is loud and clear: We can do it!
The chances of Jubilee are still bigger, for they handle many counties but more importantly the national economic policy. All eyes are on the new Budget.
The sabotage of CORD-held counties would be the silliest folly Jubilee could fall into. The devolved structures are designed in such a way that regional growth translates almost immediately into national growth. Let the regions compete and see who's best.
This healthy competition is what the drafters had in mind. This can be ‘smelled’ throughout the Constitution. The opposition is not dead; it can’t be dead with the Constitution we've got. The death of the opposition means democracy’s death.
Therefore, the saba saba threat sounds like a tantrum. We should think twice. Political tantrums, from government or opposition, will create a new State, a new Kenya, where authority will be exercised by three key powers: Executhieves, Legislooters and Judisharing. Then, in a few years we will start asking ourselves: When did the rain start beating us?
Dr Franceschi is the Dean of Strathmore Law School. [email protected] Twitter: @lgfranceschi
