Last-ditch efforts to seal coalition deals

Less than 48 hours to the Tuesday deadline for political parties to deposit coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties, presidential aspirants are faced with the delicate task of making key decisions on their future coalition partners.

As Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto sell their coalition deal in Nakuru on Sunday, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi have pushed the patience of their supporters to the edge.

With the realisation that it will be impossible for a single candidate to meet the high threshold in the Constitution for election as President, the various aspirants are in last-ditch efforts to build coalitions even as the window is fast closing.

The public eye is particularly trained on Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi who, together or separately, must face the undoubtedly formidable Uhuru-Ruto alliance.

And the odds are tough and choices few.

The Uhuru-Ruto pair would also be keen to watch which turn the talks go with the hope that they will not result in a more broad and forceful counter alliance.

Mr Musyoka, who had reportedly reached a deal with Mr Odinga, landed in the country on Friday night from Malasyia and is said to have “taken full charge” of the two-prong negotiations.

Mr Musyoka was scheduled to meet Mr Mudavadi for talks in Nairobi on Saturday evening even as some members of his party led by Chief Whip Johnstone Muthama, who have been pushing for an alliance with Mr Odinga, headed for the ODM rally in Mombasa on Sunday.

But, speaking in Nakuru on Saturday while presiding over this year’s celebrations to mark the World Aids Day, the VP denied reports that his party would sign an agreement with ODM.

“There was no document (regarding a pre-election pact between ODM and WDM) discussed in the party’s National Executive Council. All that is a creation of the media,” he said.

However, he did not rule out forming a coalition with the Prime Minister. “I am not saying that it can’t happen, I am just saying that it has not happened.”

The VP reiterated that he was in the presidential race and promised to announce his running mate on January 4, 2013, which he said was the correct deadline for parties to deposit their coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties contrary to media reports that it was December 4, 2012.

The party is engaging both Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement on the one hand and Mr Mudavadi’s United Democratic Forum on the other.

A highly-placed source familiar with the Vice-President’s thinking told the Sunday Nation that Mr Musyoka’s determination was to strike an agreement with Mr Mudavadi as well as Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa to form a bloc which would then negotiate with Mr Odinga.

“A majority of Wiper members are supportive of the alliance with Raila but, because of the mistrust and rivalry between the two, there is some nervousness,” said the source who requested anonymity.

“The VP wants to rope in Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wamalwa for a harder bargain,” he said.

Nominated MP Mohammed Affey confirmed the meeting, saying the party will reach a decision by Tuesday but closed the possibility of any future discussions with Mr Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) and Mr Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP).

Mr Affey said there was a strong feeling that a deal with ODM was not “far-fetched” and declared that negotiators would have reached a deal by Tuesday.

It was widely expected that Mr Musyoka would attend Sunday’s Orange rally in Mombasa’s Tononoka grounds but his handlers are said to have advised him against it. They argued that the move would jeopardise talks with Mr Mudavadi.

“We are in deep discussions with ODM and Musalia. Our discussions with Uhuru and Ruto flopped because we could not agree on our participation in the coalition,” said the former diplomat. “We did not like the way we were treated by TNA and URP. They said we had little to add.”

A Musyoka-Mudavadi alliance would create a Third Force to compete with Mr Odinga and the Uhuru-Ruto match, laying the ground for a gruelling three-horse presidential race.

But the dynamics are not easy, particularly for Mr Mudavadi.

Running mate

First, he has declared that he is not ready to play second fiddle to anybody, saying he had not only been running mate to both Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta but had also been Vice-President.

While moving out of ODM, he rejected proposals that he settles as Mr Odinga’s running mate, a position he was almost assured of.

In these circumstances, it would be interesting to see whether he will accept to be Mr Musyoka’s running mate, having declined the same offer in ODM.

“Mudavadi is caught up in a situation where he would have to be on the presidential ballot or risk losing support from his backyard,” said Mr Stanley Rotich, a United Democractic Party official from Sotik.

“Mr Odinga is still in a position to lure back more of Mudavadi’s supporters to ODM if he does not run for the presidency and render him weak,” argues Mr Rotich who, however, notes that a Musyoka-Mudavadi ticket could harvest a sizeable number of votes in the Rift Valley and Eastern provinces if Mr Musyoka remains as VP. The two were former President Daniel Moi’s loyal lieutenants.

But can Mr Musyoka, who considers himself politically senior to all the presidential aspirants except Mr Odinga, agree to be Mr Mudavadi’s running mate?

It is this Musyoka stance that created a standoff between him and Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

While Mr Musyoka is weighing his options, Mr Odinga, who is set to launch his presidential campaign in Nairobi on Saturday, must confront the realignments arising out of a possible alliance with Mr Musyoka, especially a likely rebellion from his supporters in Kalenjin Rift Valley.

ODM loyalists in the region are pushing for nomination of Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey as Mr Odinga’s running mate.

They argue that a Raila-Kosgey ticket will secure Mr Odinga a sizeable Rift Valley vote but it is understood that some top ODM honchos close to the PM are more inclined to a Raila-Kalonzo deal.

They argue that the Kalenjin vote is already a “lost cause,” a view rejected by former Eldoret South MP David Koros.

“The PM can reap a huge number of Kalenjin votes if he names Mr Kosgey his running mate but he will lose them all if he ignores Kosgey,” said Mr Koros.